2nd Half Preview or When the Mets Get Healthy
Posted by letsgometsgo on July 11, 2007
While the memories of breezing through the 2006 regular season and clowning the rest of the nl east are still fresh in the minds of mets fans, the 2007 edition of the team has given us something else to think about. On this date last year, also coinciding with the all-star break, the mets were 53-36, up 12 games on the phillies and 13 on the braves, with both teams under .500. This year, however, the mets have lagged (48-39) while the braves are five games better and two games back. The phillies have climbed back to .500 after a start that somehow did not cost charlie manuel his job. Of the two, only atlanta really concerns me, they’re still a strong team despite falling off slightly from their previous goodness, but mostly because the phillies are the phillies. The only thing thats really changed about our division in the last couple years is the mets have improved drastically. Atlanta is still dangerous and you can count on the phillies to phade (get it?).
A look at the teams schedules immediately following the break doesn’t do much to dispel those notions. Of the three teams, all have about the same number of home and away games but only philly faces more teams currently at or over .500 than under.
Atlanta’s schedule makes me think the mets could easily relinquish the division lead at some point during july. The braves come out of the break facing the dregs of the nl central at home, with three each against the pirates and reds before a four-game set with the cardinals for ten games at the ted against sub-.500 competition. The braves’ only three games with a team over .500 for the rest of the month are in arizona during their west coast jaunt which also includes four games in sunny san francisco. Meanwhile, the mets have the four at home against cincinnati before two series with the top two teams in the nl west, three in san diego before another trip to chavez revine where the mets are already 0-3 this year for four games with the dodgers. Our long, national league east nightmare may not yet be over. While the jockeying for position goes on between the mets and braves, the phillies have the cardinals at home for three before their own seven game west coast swing. The month rounds out with the mets and phillies going on the road to face the brewers and cubs, respectively, while the braves have houston at home.
For the short term especially, the braves have an opportunity to make a move for the division lead. With the all-star break giving some of their injured players a chance to recuperate (and minimizing the number of missed starts by smoltz), the specter of andruw jones getting his act together still looming (or at least the reality that he cannot hurt his team any more than he is now), and a schedule which is at least a tad easier than that of their divisional foes, the braves figure to be strong the rest of the year.
The mets can probaly count on the addition of pedro martinez before the year is out, but exactly what his contribution will be obviously remains to be seen. That said, the mets starting pitching has already rewarded optimists this season with performances by johnny maine, ollie perez and jorge sosa which vary in their degree of surprise, but collectively are well above what you could have reasonably expected coming into the season.
Looking ahead, I anticipate the mets and braves to trade the division lead in the short term before the mets pull ahead for good. The only thing about that braves team that scares me more than andruw jones waking up is john schuerholz making a move. This atlanta team is pretty solid as constructed. You know what to expect, they’ll be professional but not dominant. The right move for the braves could swing that. As it stands now, chief nocahoma’s boys are sixth in the nl in runs scored, eighth in era.
As quietly noble as those middle-of-the-road rankings are, if the mets can get some of their injured players back on the field and performing, they’re liable to roll through the league again. Its been said time and again that omar views pedro as a midseason acquisition already. Put moises alou in the same category. The team has gone 22-25 since alou went on the dl and with his return along with pedro and perhaps even duaner sometime in august, the mets figure to pick up where they left off after this lengthly flirtation with mediocrity. If all three come back and perform roughly as they did before injury, the mets will have acquired a premiere player for the heart of their order, the top of the rotation and the back of their bullpen. Yikes. Indeed, the mets mash unit already has some players on the mend. More than likely, milledge makes his return to the mets and shea on thursday. With his return, we are reminded that the others will soon be back as well, and with them comes roster decisions, perhaps concerning jose valentin and his bum knee (and with 87 games played, not yet halfway to the 400 plate appearances that would guarantee next year’s team option) and julio franco and his bum bat speed. But they won’t go, not yet, not with characters like david newhan and sandy alomar, jr occupying roster spots, and certified lemons guillermo mota and scott schoeneweis still making trouble in the bullpen.
And with the 31st approaching, we know that omar is more than willing to sit, having been forced to make last year’s deadline trade only in reaction to duaner’s season-ending late night cab shenanigans. Then there’s the rumored deal from last year that angelos supposedly nixed, a three-way trade that would’ve landed milledge and heilman in baltimore for oswalt with houston getting tejada, its good to know that’s how omar would have used his trading chips.
Well. Future entries ought to have more structure, but I’m just trying to get the ball rolling here. There are a few ideas broached in here that I’d like to have given a bit more thought and words too, but as it is this feels like a too-long blog entry, so perhaps they’ll be expanded upon in future posts.
